129774133134062500_106Editor's Note: January 26, 2011, the State Council Executive meeting to launch the real estate market regulation measures--"eight new countries", which first made clear further implementation of local government responsibilities, requirements for 2011 city people s Government to reasonably determine the annual new housing price control targets in the region, and was announced to the public in the first quarter. Now time has come toEnd of the first quarter of 2012, limit targets will be introduced with the first anniversary of the place. For nearly a year, real estate adjustment and the results, what's the latest, how changes in the real estate market? This special launch topic, picking them one by one. End of the real estate investment fall in house prices House prices rose too quickly to be a foregone conclusion, and real estate is no longer the national investmentSelected, mortgage through a concession after cancellation, raised its benchmark interest rate
tera gold, and now again targeted offers "limit, limit quota" are strong measures for the regulation of this new offering, although at the beginning of the introduction is the Chief color heavy, but appeared only to is accelerated real estate regulation as soon as possible. Early last year, all over the State Council announced at the end of March 2011 price targets, then, Beijing, Shanghai published the first control targets. Today, the place to impose limited price order that is filled with the first anniversary of house prices rising too fast horse was pulled, real estate is no longer the preferred object of national investment, mortgage terms cancel, raised its benchmark interest rate after the experience, to ensure that the demand, today mortgage rates again targeted discounts. Universal investment boom end one or two linesCity to strictly enforce restriction, restriction of credit, investment in real estate as residents preferred the end of times. 1 quarter 2012 depositors of the Bank survey showed that in major investment, 25.7% residents of preference "funds, financial products", 3.2% increase in this ratio 4 quarter compared with last year, is a resident of preferred investment; residentsA major investment for the "industrial" (residents of the 16.4% tendency of the investment, is the highest value since the beginning of 2009), "real estate investing" wishes to continue to fall, more lower and 1.4 respectively, and at the end of last year, holds the third place in the major investment. Chain real estate analysts Feng Lianlian believes that quarter of 2011, IResident of State ranked first over investment real estate, but from 2011 after the fourth quarter dropped to second, continue to lower in the first quarter to the third, main bodes well for the current control has touched the optimistic investor Outlook is expected to neural, long term, investors believe "investing in real estate is not worth" more than house price decline itself can promote the sound development of the market.The will of the residents of the purchase within the next 3 months, 14.1% and quarter on flat over the lowest values since the beginning of the 1999 survey. People of different income levels, higher-income residents (family monthly income of $ 50,000 or more) least willingness to invest in real estate, only to 13.7%. Mega-cities (Beijing, Shanghai) residents ' willingness to invest in real estateLower than the lowest level in early 2009, just 9.4%. CRIC Research Center believes that direct use of administrative powers in nearly two years policy has profound experience in the market to the Government's determination to control prices, house prices up not only falling confidence was lost. As for the future, promoting the construction of affordable housing system, as well as becoming part of the property tax will completely change our roomProduction market of investment pattern, former will on House market needs formed huge of shunt effect, especially in the low-end market supply and demand relationship will gradually reversed, then who once mature and in focus city range within widely implementation, is will full suppressed including upscale room in within all products of investment space, especially in regulation normal of, and market unilateral up trend difficult are of background Xia, past ten years inVirtually risk-free profit-making model of real estate investment may be ending. Premium period of decline expanded Ministry of land and resources on 2012, was released on February 15 priority notification of real estate management and Regulation (hereinafter referred to as the circular), which calls for 2012 volume should not be less than of land supply for housing plan 107,700 hectares, representing 2011 per cent hectares and the significant reduction in the level of actual supply 2010 hectares. For two consecutive years in the in the "increase the supply of" this year, after a steering "reduce supply", planning to level down to 2009 for the actual level of supply. According to the monitoring of the Central Plains, 13 major urban residential land average stream rate, 2011 fourQuarter showed a significant increase. Apart from Shenzhen, other urban stream rates are at all-time highs, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Changchun, and even reached historical highs since the 2008. Under this influence, 2011 13 major urban residential land fell in trading volume of about 32%, 2012 1 trading volume continued to decline. Along with theA stream problem highlighting, the notification requirements, stream, flows through the land market this year online reporting in a timely manner the dynamic monitoring and supervision system. Since the regulation in 2011, 13 major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Changchun,) the average land prices general downward trendPotential, average land prices fell for the year 11%, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, 5 per cent lower than in cities are more than 20%. However, the average land prices fell mainly due to the low proportion of land contract to expand in the suburbs. Since the beginning of 2012, significant increase in the phenomenon of substantial price cuts begin, 69% appeared in the February contract land substantial price cuts, onMonth the ratio is 37%. Prices drop at 20% or less. Housing land digestive cycle extended enterprise more loose land prices in the near future, show that in the current market environment, although the land supply and demand in the more obvious. Therefore, only land prices lowered further, before it can be effective to attract developers to promote land transactions. However, from just over two sessionsStand, real estate adjustment and will continue this year, and not relaxed, allowing developers to Outlook continues to look at light, at the same time, due to the market downturn, land had to extend the digestive cycle, it also makes developers passion plummet on the land market. By the end of 2011, generally elongate digestive cycle storage room rate of soil, such as Greentown China, its digestive cycle storage 2010 jumped 13 to 24 at the end of year. In 2012 the digestive cycle storage, remained on a 24-year highs. Others such as shimao, merchants, Poly, bi Gui Yuan Rong Sheng development, 2012 land reserves of the digestive cycle also has been high in recent years. By the end of February 2012, 56% of the digestive cycle of land reserves in typical houses and enterprises 10Above, particularly in Greentown, shimao, merchants, constant, and so clear. Housing analyst Magota analysis says that in many evaluation index of listed enterprises, land reserve digestive cycle changes markedly, many enterprises the additional digestion cycle has been high in recent years. 2009-2010, land reserves while the digestive cycle of enterprises has increasedPlus, but in a slow-growth stage. China vanke Group (vanke Blue Ridge China vanke happy meeting) digestive cycle storage at the end of 2009 approximately 3.7 years; the end of 2010, some typical digestive cycle storage room and enterprise growth, digestive cycle of shimao property, investment real estate increased to 14, wanke l for 4 years. According to CRIC monitoring, following the green cityHou, digestion and a longer cycle of enterprise storage to shimao, merchants, constant, enterprises digestive cycle is 11 years or so. Magota pointed out that, even for the constant in this type of high turnover business, currently also stress the total 137 million square meters of land reserve, 2011 is the constant sales so far one of the best years, with monthly sales of 1.02 million square metres, the currentLand reserve digestive cycle up to 11 years. New opening 30th sales rates record low after the lunar new year, trading volume in the four major cities a new house while rendering recovery of bounced, 30th sales data show market turnover situation is continuing to deteriorate. In February, the four cities the average sale rate is only 12.1% for almost half a year to their lowest value in January, representing8% also fell during the spring festival season. City, Beijing's new House on 30th of February sales rate is only 4.1%, even far less 11.4% the Spring Festival in January, for the first-tier cities in the worst. New home market since January this year, Beijing has been in extreme cold conditions, the first two months of this year average monthly supply of monthly average last year was not one-fourth,(Removed protection) should only be 40% about last month. Shanghai and Shenzhen sales rate than in January showed a significant decline, 30th of February sales rate is less than 20%. Judging from the city flats sold for regional, suburban real estate sale low price advantage gradually fade away, urban decline significantly in high-end real estate has gradually gained the upper hand. February benchmark enterprises in four citiesSales in January clearly worse than. Fuli, Poly and vanke 30th sale rates are lower than in January. Fuli's 30th sales last month fell to 7% in the month of 30%, January sales rate per cent of branches in February not to 60%. In addition to branches in Guangzhou "vanke Garden before the House" outside sales 40%, the past few months in the hot list topPoly and the benchmark rate of hot items such as r, February also are hard to find in the best seller list its gone. In July 2011, poly open 30th sales rate of up to 89%, and in February only to 3%. Analysts point out that benchmarking enterprises in cities sales decline occurs because, mainly, is benchmarking companies push the general enthusiasm began to weaken.This period, in benchmarking enterprises only wanke, Fuli poly 3 developers and new supply in four cities, and as a whole new supply of real estate only 5; and January in the four cities have pushed 8 benchmark enterprises, and as a whole new supply of real estate had reached 25. Even more important is, as the increasing price real estate
tera power leveling, benchmarking new sale price of House and Enterprise advantage is no longerObvious. Shenzhen Longgang "Poly residential estate garden [news type price reviews]" contract price amounted to $ 16,729/square meter, 13000-15000 Yuan/square meter is higher than the regional average. Prices a foregone conclusion of the National Bureau of statistics announced on March 18 February 70 cities nationwide housing sales price changesCondition display, new city reached 27 per cent drop in house prices of goods, 12 more than in January, and cities fell 45, Rose City is 4. But judging from the, not only the price reduction in the number of urban,-also narrowed to 0.1%. But price decreases in the narrow, difficult situation to override prices fall. Centaline North China DongGeneral Manager Li Wenjie said
tera power leveling, no change to the current downward trend of house prices in February from narrowing is affected by a decrease in the Spring Festival factor effect. Spring Festival earlier this year, finished at the end of January after the Spring Festival, in February, before Spring Festival on new year's day, and new year's day release in the accumulation of these two sections need set, trading volume rising faster, the decline has narrowed to a certain role.On the next trend in house prices this year throughout the country, analysts agreed that there are decreases in space, particularly in the urban space. JP Morgan Chief Economist Zhu Haibin stressed that risks within the property market is the largest in 2012. Policies less likely to relax on the property market this year, national averages for the year is expected to decline in house prices 5% per cent, some citiesMight be reduced by 15% per cent. "If started in the area of commercial housing has been falling," he added, "then in 2014 or 2015, prices may get a rebound. "" Urban mid-tier, low-end housing stock to be traded in one or two lines, driving the price down, but three cities still in the steady increase in house prices. "First Pacific DaviesLiudeyang, Chairman of China said. He predicted that 2012 5% around in home prices in cities fall, two or three lines of urban decline in house prices could increase to about 10%. Dawei Zhang thinks the Beijing centaline property market research department, used to measure a region property on the international healthy rental than generally defined as 1:300. According to the present situation in Beijing1:400 House prices return to reasonable upper limit should be, that is the current fall in prices should be at least 10% per cent of the space. Price is dropped in the channel, when is a good time to buy, Yang Hongxu believes that from now on, the next six months, including three quarter in the second quarter, are relatively good time.
Others:
没有评论:
发表评论